Gold and Oil – Where do prices go in 2019 ?
On July 6, 2019 by Paula Antle
Oil and gold are hardly correlated. This offers investors the opportunity not only to hedge for many scenarios, but even to make profits.
It doesn’t all fit together at the moment: here are the supporters of the MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), according to which the state can print as much money as it needs, because a sideways trending gold price. Here attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, as an oil price that falls rather than rises. In fact, the current mix is far from easy to analyze in order to build perfect decisions on it. Therefore, it is important to know the possible influencing factors and to relate them to each other. In this way, scenarios can be developed and strategies can be developed that cover the widest possible spectrum.
But you can never be sure of yourself in the extremely complex world. In addition to normal business cycles and natural influences, decisions made by state leaders with at least narcissistic traits sometimes create extreme uncertainties. Out of nowhere, a trade war with a recession scenario can arise so quickly.
It is good to hear an optimistic opinion.
“The latest figures signal that world trade will return to its trend growth of four percent in the summer,” Andreas Rees, chief economist at Unicredit Germany, writes in his latest analysis. Rees is based on his house’s global leading indicator, which in May recorded its biggest increase in more than seven years. “However, political uncertainty could still have a dampening effect in the future,” the economist said. Again, it boils down to scenarios.
But how can investors position themselves on different scenarios of geopolitics and the global economy? Basic scaffolding are vehicles that develop in a contrary way. Two easy-to-use assets are gold and oil. The prices of these two raw materials have almost no correlation. In addition, gold is negatively correlated with the main stock markets as well as long-term interest rates. Oil, on the other hand, is slightly positively correlated with these markets. This means, at least in theory, that if the Dax falls, the price of gold rises, and the oil quotation comes under only a slight pressure. Thus, investors can build an investment system independent of the stock markets, which should produce a positive return, at least in most cases.
Scenario 1
There is a strong financial crisis followed by recession and extremely loose monetary policy. Opec (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies are holding back on further support for the oil price. The price of oil would then come under severe pressure. However, the price of gold could surpass the all-time high. At 2000 dollars per ounce, a negative total return would also remain. But the gold experts at Incrementum in Liechtenstein even give gold potential up to 5000 US dollars. Then the overall return of the oil-gold combination would again be positive.
Scenario 2
The geopolitical crises are escalating, and there are even wars between Iran and the US. In this case, it would be the price of oil that is overshooting and could well reach USD 120 per barrel. In addition, gold would hold very well above today’s level. A return of around 50 percent would be conceivable.
Scenario 3
The trade dispute between the US and China is widening and the global recession is taking place. Opec, however, is intervening to prop up the price of oil. A case well below the 50-dollar mark could be avoided in this way. The price of gold, on the other hand, would probably rise, indicating the risks of sovereign and corporate failures.
Scenario 4
An agreement in the trade dispute between China and the US calms the minds and, above all, the stock exchanges. This stimulates the mood of decision-makers and leads to a global economic recovery. Gold is used less as a hedge at such a stage. The price of the precious metal is falling significantly. In the longer term, increased demand will be supported, especially in emerging countries such as China and India. Oil, on the other hand, holds up very well from the outset because of rising demand.
Scenario 5
The geopolitical uncertainty remains due to the constant skirmishes between US President Donald Trump and Beijing and Tehran. But monetary policy, which is easing again, is keeping the economy going well. This would mean, on the one hand, a rising price of gold to hedge against possible inflationary tendencies and the risk of a weaker US dollar. Oil, on the other hand, is in demand and increases slightly in price.
What to do? A combination of gold and oil seems a good alternative. Certainly, the prices of the two commodities cannot be predicted with certainty. But the trend is likely to move in the direction expected, at least in the longer term. What returns would then be expected from this combination is shown in the table below as an example. If the price of oil and gold were to be unimpressed by geopolitical developments and remain at current levels, even then a “sideways return” of 9.5 percent would emerge.
Correlations offer a hedging opportunity: the lower asset classes correlate, the lower the overall risk can be represented in the portfolio. The correlation is set from 1.0 (equal) to -1.0 (absolutely contrary behavior). At zero, the asset classes move independently of each other. The correlation may well change over time. This brings additional difficulties in the assessment.
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What is a News Site? Why do we have News Sites?
On August 26, 2017 by Paula AntleThe news is information about happenings and events, occurring right now. News can be channelled through many different media forms.
- You can buy a newspaper, news in printed form.
- You can listen to a news broadcast on the radio.
- Or watch the news broadcast on the Television, hearing and seeing the news.
- Or a friend could have told you.
- You even might have experienced the news yourself and is spreading the word.
Among these news outlets, you will also find a News Site. This is actually an Online Newspaper and a version of a printed paper. The Internet, or going online, created more opportunities for newspapers and independent news sites not linked to a printed version. Publishing, or Broadcasting the latest, breaking news, first, is every news outlet’s top-most priority.
With online newspapers, anything you post is immediate, Out There, current, fresh, Now, news.
An early version of a news site was, “News Report”, in 1974, reporting on the PLATO system. By the late 1990s, many newspapers were also publishing an online version. Printed newspaper versions usually run news that featured 12 hours before, on the online version.
Topics for newsworthy events run, from war, government issues, the entertainment business, politics, health, education, global warming, sports events, unusual happenings and much more. Anything that will bring a change in our daily lives, a change in rules and regulations by governments, taxes, celebrity celebrations, presidential or royal ceremonies, crime, all things that will gain attention, is regarded as news.
A News Site can still use News Reporters, or journalists, to provide them with the news. Journalists are being taught today to be able to write and shoot video that can be used for Internet news sites, as well as, the correct format used for printed versions.
But, News sites can also publish news from other sources; too, for instance, you came upon a rare bird on vacation, took a picture, and submitted it on their website. Or, you found a lost child in a shopping centre and published it online. All newsworthy events and publishable, experienced, first hand, by yourself.
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Legal Issues and Concerns when Publishing a News Site
On August 26, 2017 by Paula AntleMore and more people are finding and following the news on the Internet via Online News Sites. It is a lot easier and faster to publish a news break on a News Site than through a printed version. Publishing online, however, may have its legal issues just like normal printed publish, or even more so, because of the borderlines between the different online publishing, are still unclear.
Also, take in account, that it is not always, only a journalist, that will be publishing an event, and the source of a news event can easily be a visitor on the news site. Even if a published event were done anonymously through a third party, the news site can be held liable for a legal mishap.
3 Web Site Legal Issues that can cause major Concerns when Publishing a News Site:
- Copyright: There are 5 exclusive rights that copyright owners have. You will be guilty of copyright infringements when you violate any of the following:
When obtaining images from the web to create original images from drawings, etc. you may still infringe on the copyright of the original image, even when there seem to be nothing similar. It is best to start from scratch than using anthers’ creation.
Do not take images from third-party sources, where the original image might be protected by copyright.
Certain images can be copied but you might have to accept terms and conditions of use.
The use of Clip-art files, provided with your computer software, does not violate any copyright laws. Even though these images are licensed you still need to be careful towards obeying the terms of these licenses.
Free Images, provided by some sights, are available for use by others. Again, as long as the terms stipulated by the creator, are followed.
- Domain Name: Firstly you should verify that your chosen domain name does not infringe on other trademarks.
You may contest the use of a certain domain name by someone else that registered a corporate name before you which is similar to the one you wanted to use.
- Defamation: False Statements, which are made about someone, or an organization, that can be damaging to their reputation, is called defamation. Publishing this statement to a third party, while knowing it is a false statement, makes it viable for defamation.
These are only a few of the complexities of law when you are publishing a news site. The Internet is a global system with no set boundaries and therefore very difficult to regulate.
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5 Top World News Stories shared on an Online News Site
On August 26, 2017 by Paula Antle5 News Stories that made Headlines:
- May 2017; 150 countries were affected when computers around the world were hit by a huge ransom ware cyber attack. Malicious computer software threatens to publish a victim’s data and block access to the data unless a ransom is paid. When data is blocked, files are encrypted and inaccessible. Depending on the type of ransom ware used, a knowledgeable person can reverse the block; in more advanced cases a decryption key is needed.
- June 2017; The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant destroys the “Great Mosque of al-Nuri” in Mosul, Iraq. The Mosque was famous for its leaning minaret. The mosque underwent many renovations but was built late in the 12th century. During the “Battle of Mosul” the 850 years old mosque was blown up as well as the cylindrical portion of the minaret. Minarets are traditionally used for the call to prayer for Muslims and provide a visual focal point.
- July 2017; North Korea successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time, after which Russia and China urged North Korea to halt their missile and nuclear programs. The Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, a legally binding international agreement, towards prohibiting the owning of nuclear weapons and eventually total elimination of nuclear weapons, was voted on in July 2017. 122 countries voted in favour, 1 abstained, 1 voted against the Treaty, where 69 nations did not vote and also all Nato members did not vote.
- August 2017; Fresh sanctions against North Korea were unanimously approved by the UN Security Council which will further restrict their trading and investments.
- August 2017; Hurricane Harvey is expected to hit Texas during Friday night to the early hours of Saturday morning. Fears are mounting that it could become the worst storm, to date, to hit United States mainland, since 2005. Louisiana and Texas coastlines, stretching hundreds of miles, are directly in Hurricane Harvey’s way. A warning was issued that Harvey is already a Category3 and is rapidly intensifying.
These are only a few of the news events and stories happening around us, some of the events taking place as you read. That is ultimately the goal of a news site; providing information about current events as they unfold.
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